A deepening rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates across the Horn of Africa is overshadowing this weekend’s African Union summit. Nine diplomats and experts say most continental leaders will try to avoid taking sides. What began as a contest in Yemen has spread across the Red Sea into a region riven with conflicts. These include war in Somalia and Sudan, rivalry between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and a divided Libya. Consequently, the African Union summit in Addis Ababa occurs against a backdrop of foreign interference stoking instability. The Gulf competition is forcing countries, regions, and even warlords to choose sides, complicating efforts to address local crises.
The UAE has become an influential player in the Horn through multi-billion-dollar investments, robust diplomacy, and discreet military support. Saudi Arabia has been more low-profile, but diplomats say Riyadh is building an alliance that includes Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar. “Saudi has woken up and realised that they might lose the Red Sea,” a senior African diplomat told Reuters. Initially focused on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, both crucial shipping routes, the rivalry now reaches further inland. “Today it is in Somalia, but it is also playing out in Sudan, Sahel and elsewhere,” the diplomat added. Saudi officials say UAE activities in Yemen and the Horn threaten their national security. Senior Emirati officials argue their strategy strengthens states against extremists, though critics say it has fueled conflict.
Forcing Nations to Choose Sides
The Gulf rivalry is compelling Horn of Africa nations to navigate treacherous diplomatic waters. Somalia provides the starkest example. It cut ties with Abu Dhabi, accusing it of influencing Israel’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence bid. Mogadishu subsequently signed a defense agreement with Qatar, while Turkey sent fighter jets to the capital. Tensions are also rising between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which have been on the verge of war for months. Eritrea’s leader recently visited Saudi Arabia, a trip analysts perceived as signaling Saudi backing. Sudan’s civil war has also drawn in the Gulf rivals. The UAE is accused of providing logistical support to the RSF paramilitary. States aligned with Saudi Arabia largely back the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Egypt, a Saudi ally, has deployed drones along its border and used them to strike RSF inside Sudan.
Ethiopia’s Balancing Act
Ethiopia, which hosts the African Union summit, finds itself deeply entangled. Analysts say Ethiopia benefits from UAE support. Reuters recently reported that Ethiopia is hosting a base in the west where RSF fighters are recruited and trained. Ethiopia has not publicly commented. This involvement creates tension with its neighbors and with Saudi-aligned actors. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed must navigate competing pressures while also facing a potential return to war with Eritrea. The situation highlights how local conflicts have become inextricably linked to Gulf rivalries, making resolution far more complex. Ethiopia’s role as AU host adds another layer of scrutiny, as it must appear neutral while managing its own strategic partnerships.
Reluctant Actors and Cautious Diplomacy
Despite the pressure, experts say African nations are likely to tread carefully. Michael Woldemariam, a Horn expert at the University of Maryland, noted that even actors alarmed by UAE influence may be cautious about being “caught up in a brawl between these two Gulf powers.” The desire to avoid choosing sides reflects a broader continental wariness of foreign entanglements. African Union members historically value sovereignty and non-interference. The summit’s agenda already includes other crises: war in Democratic Republic of Congo and spreading insurgencies in the Sahel. Yet the Horn’s destabilization, fueled by Gulf money and arms, threatens to overshadow all else. Leaders must balance condemning foreign interference with the practical need for investment and support from these wealthy Gulf states.
Implications for Regional Stability
The Saudi-UAE rivalry’s impact on the Horn is deeply destabilizing. It exacerbates existing conflicts, arms opposing factions, and creates new fault lines. The Red Sea region is one of the world’s most vital trade corridors. Instability there threatens global shipping and regional economies. It also creates opportunities for extremist groups to exploit governance vacuums. The Horn’s fragmentation serves no one’s long-term interests, yet the short-term competition for influence persists. Alex Rondos, the EU’s former special representative, questioned whether Gulf powers fully grasp the implications. “Will the Horn of Africa allow itself to be broken into pieces by these foreign rivalries and their African accomplices?” he asked.
Outlook Beyond the Summit
The African Union summit provides a platform for leaders to voice concerns, but concrete action is unlikely. The AU lacks the power to compel Gulf states to alter their behavior. Individual nations will continue their delicate balancing acts. The rivalry will persist as long as the Horn remains a strategic prize. For ordinary people, the consequences are already severe. Conflicts fueled by foreign arms and money drag on, displacing millions and destroying livelihoods. The summit’s lofty declarations will ring hollow if they fail to address the root cause: external powers using the region as a chessboard. The path to stability requires African unity in demanding non-interference and prioritizing regional solutions over alignment with competing Gulf patrons. Until then, the Horn’s conflicts will remain proxy battles, and the African Union summit’s true agenda will be decided far from Addis Ababa.
